Gurwinder A-M

Adams’ 25% rule:

Instead of trying to be the best at one thing, try to be «merely» great at two things and then learn to combine them. Not only is this easier, but it will make your skillset more unique, cutting out the competition.

Ad Hoc Rescue

Vi blir så sterkt knyttet til våre standpunkter at vi begynner å forsvare dem som en advokat forsvarer sin klient. Vi leter etter et hvert smutthull som tillater oss å fortsette å tro på dem. Men standpunkter burde være hypoteser som testes, ikke skatter som skal voktes, ifølge Philip Tetlock.

Alder’s Razor

Hvis noe ikke kan avgjøres gjennom eksperiment eller observasjon, er det trolig ikke verdt debatt. Uten empiriske bevis kan det aldri bli annet enn ord mot ord, og alle vil ha det siste.

Algorithmic Blindspots:

We find growth and widen our perspective while searching for other things. Algorithms give us just exactly what we want on demand, so we never need to search. Hence, we never find what we never knew we needed. If you wish to grow, defy the robots’ recommendations.

Anattã

Et buddhistisk konsept. Ingenting ved en person er konstant. Vaner plukkes opp og droppes. Oppfatninger dannes og forkastes. Drømmer smis og knuses. Begjær tennes og slukner. Selvet er et pågående arbeid som kontinuerlig omarbeides. Og likevel vurderes vi alle som om vi var endelige.

Anger-minimalisering

Et sted i framtida vil ditt eldre jeg observere deg gjennom minnene. Om det vil føle anger eller nostalgi kommer an på hva du gjør i dag. Gjør noe du sannsynligvis ikke vil angre på i framtida.

Apatheia (å la følelsene råde).

Frykt kan være mer lammende enn det du frykter. Opphisselse kan gjøre deg mer sprø enn det som hisser deg opp. Hat er mer skadelig enn det du hater. Seier over våre fiender krever derfor at vi kan beseire våre følelser for dem. Stay stoic!

Arc of Happiness:

Self-reported happiness graphed by age is smile-shaped. The optimism of youth becomes cynicism as responsibilities mount & dreams collide with reality. But after midlife, happiness rises again as people accept reality and learn to enjoy the small things.

Astroturfing

Skape inntrykk av at en planlagt markedsføringskampanje egentlig er et grasrot-initiativ.

Babble-hypotesen

Den beste indikatoren på om noen vil bli en leder, er hvor mye de snakker. Neil G. MacLaren la i oktober 2020 fram en studie som viste at grupper lettere greide å velge en leder dersom en begynte å snakke mye.

Backwards Law:

The more you pursue happiness, the less likely you are to obtain it, because the focus on acquiring it only reinforces the fact that you don’t have it. Ironically, happiness comes easiest to those who don’t worry about it.

Balaji’s Transformer:

Have a written idea? Draw it. Have a visual idea? Write it. Reformatting an idea lets you see it from a new POV. Walt Disney turned a dull business plan into a diagram, revealing new connections and opening new pathways of thought.

Bandwidth Tax

Being poor is expensive; constantly managing scarce resources requires such mental effort (intellectual and emotional) that there’s little brainpower left for anything else. Thus, poverty makes it hard to escape poverty.

Beginner’s Bubble Effect:

«You cannot learn what you think you already know.» —Epictetus. The most ignorant are not those who know nothing, but those who know a little, because a little knowledge grants the illusion of understanding, which kills curiosity and closes the mind. Men se også Dunning-Kruger Effect og Curiosity Zone.

Benford’s Law of Controversy:

We tend to fill gaps in information with emotion. We fear what we don’t understand, love what we naively romanticize, etc. As such, the things that fire people up most are usually the things they understand least.

Bonhoeffer’s Theory of Stupidity:

Evil can be guarded against. Stupidity cannot. And the world’s few evil people have little power without the help of the world’s many stupid people. Therefore, stupidity is a far greater threat than evil.

Brandolini’s Law:

Aka the Bullshit Asymmetry Principle. It takes a lot more energy to refute bullshit than to produce it. Hence, the world is full of unrefuted bullshit.

Baader-Meinhof fenomenet

Når vi legger merke til noe nytt og uvanlig, klistrer det seg fast og vi føler at vi ser det stadig oftere og på flere steder. Vår oppmerksomhet forleder oss til å tro at det har blitt mer utbredt, selv om det bare er vi som legger mer merke til det.

Celine’s 1st Law

National Security is the chief cause of national insecurity. Alle stater trenger et hemmelig politi med vide fullmakter, men ingen etat ville være viktigere å infiltrere. Derfor trengs det et hemmelighemmelig politi som kan kontrollere det hemmelige politiet. Og det trengs selvsagt noen som overvåker dem også, og dem igjen… Hagbard Celine er hovedperson i Illuminatus! trilogien.

Celine’s 2nd Law:

Accurate communication is possible only in a non-punishing situation. Or, honest communication occurs only between equals. If one person has power over another, then the less powerful person can’t risk saying what they really think. Thus, in any hierarchy, honest communication only travels horizontally.

Celine’s 3rd Law:

An honest politician is a national calamity. Or, an honest politician is more dangerous than a corrupt one. A corrupt politician is only interested in enriching himself. An honest, idealistic politician actually wants to change the world, so he stands a real chance of wrecking everything. This also goes for autocratic tzars.

Cheerleader Effect

The cheerleader effect, also known as the group attractiveness effect is a proposed cognitive bias which causes people to perceive individuals as 1.5–2.0% more attractive in a group than when seen alone. The first paper to report this effect was written by Drew Walker and Edward Vul, in 2014.

Chesterton’s Fence

A cautioning principle for reformers stating that change should not be made until the reasoning behind the status quo is fully understood. It was coined by English author and journalist G. K. Chesterton.

Chilling effect

Når folk forstår at deres uttalelser kan straffe seg, slutter de å uttale seg ærlig, og sier i stedet det som er nødvendig for å kunne fungere sosialt. Begrenset talefrihet er begrenset oppriktighet. Se også Celine’s 2nd Law.

Compounding:

To win big, do small things consistently. Since human brains think linearly, we vastly underestimate the exponential effect of cumulative small actions. In 2005, Canadian blogger Kyle MacDonald traded his way from a paperclip to a house in just 14 transactions.

Cosmic Schmuck Principle:

There are two kinds of people in this world: those who sometimes worry that they’re a moron, and actual morons. In other words, the best way to be less of an idiot is to treat yourself like one.

Counterfeit Fitness:

Men’s main driver for pursuing greatness is to get laid. But porn & sexbots offer men the illusion of getting laid without the need to “earn” it, so men are quickly losing their main motivation for bettering themselves.

Crab-Bucket Effect (aka Tall Poppy Syndrome):

On social media, people will attack those they envy or desire to bring them down and assuage their own feelings of inferiority. If they have no pride in their accomplishments, they’ll instead take pride in your failures.

Curiosity Zone:

Curiosity is the desire to fill gaps in knowledge. Thus, curiosity occurs not when you know nothing about something, but when you know a bit about it. So learn a little about as much as you can (like you’re doing now!), and it will spur you to learn even more.

Cynical Genius Illusion:

Cynical people are seen as smarter, but sizable research suggests they actually tend to be dumber. Cynicism is not a sign of intelligence but a substitute for it, a way to shield oneself from betrayal & disappointment without having to actually think.

Dartmouth Scar:

Kleck (1991) pretended to paint a scar on people’s faces, then sent them into job interviews. They reported discrimination due to the scar—even though they had no scar. Few things victimize us more than the belief that we’re a victim.

Deferred Happiness Syndrome

Den utbredte følelsen av at livet ditt ikke har begynt enda, at virkeligheten du lever i bare er forspillet til en idyllisk framtid. Idyllen er en hildring som vil falme når du nærmer deg, og avsløre at forspillet du hastet igjennom egentlig var forspillet til døden.

Det evige nuet

Vi jakter alltid på det nye og ignorerer alt som er eldre enn 24 timer, f.eks. menneskehetens akkumulerte visdom. Den eldste visdommen, som har tålt tidens tann, er likevel som oftest mer riktig enn den ferskeste informasjonen. (PS. Deler ikke helt dette synet. Det er en god del gammel «visdom» som er bare tull).

Digital Detox

Du kan ikke utvikle perspektiv samtidig som du forbruker uendelige informasjonsmengder, så skru av de lysende skjermene en gang iblant, bli sittende i mørket og oppdag det du ellers ville vært blind for. Bare når natten skjuler verden rundt oss, ser vi galaksen over oss.

Dopamine Culture:
The delay between desire & gratification is shrinking. Pleasure is increasingly more instant & effortless. Everything is becoming a drug.

Dunning-Kruger Effect:

We don’t know what we don’t know. As such, stupid people are too stupid to realize how stupid they are. The combination of poor self-awareness and low cognitive ability leads them to overestimate their capabilities. This is why it’s easier to win an argument against a genius than an idiot.

Ellsberg Paradox

Folk er mer villig til å vedde om oddsen er kjent, enn om den ikke er det. Dersom de skal gjette sannsynligheten for å trekke rød ball i et gjennomsiktig glass med røde og svarte baller, så er folk mer villig til å ta veddemålet når de eksakte oddsene er kjent. Er dette egentlig et paradoks?

Empty Name:

We can be convinced that a concept is real by the mere fact that it has a name, but the world is full of names for things that aren’t real (e.g. Batman). As such, assume nothing is true just because it has a name (including every concept in this megathread!)

Enstemmighetens paradoks

Forskerne Gunn et al. (2016) fant at øyenvitner som enstemmige er enige om identiteten til en mistenkt, har størst sannsynlighet for å ta feil. Jo flere som er enige, jo mindre sannsynlig at de tenker selvstendig. Vokt deg for konsensus.

Enthymeme

The best propagandists convince people of a lie not by stating the lie directly but by making statements that tacitly assume the lie as a premise. A mistruth deduced in one’s own mind is much harder to guard against than one that enters fully formed from elsewhere.

Epistemic Luck

You know that if you’d lived in a different place or time, read different books, had different friends, you’d have different beliefs. And yet, you’re convinced that your current beliefs are correct. So, are you wrong, or the luckiest person ever?

Epistemisk ydmykhet (Epistemic humility)

Framfor å prøve å være genial, konsentrer deg om å være mindre idiotisk. Gå ut fra at du vet for lite enda til å ha en klar oppfatning og jobb deg videre derfra.

Escher setninger (Kamala-talk)

Lingvistiske konstruksjoner som tilsynelatende gir mening, men som er bare bullshit når du ser nærmere etter. «Det er varmere på sommeren enn på landet».

Explore-Exploit Tradeoff:

The young own little and so have little to lose, and are free to experiment and overturn norms. The old own much so he can’t risk experimenting, and need stability to safeguard the lives they’ve built. A key reason people become more conservative with age.

False Consensus effekten

Vi følger ikke bare det vi anser som normalen, vi anser det vi gjør som normalen. Vår oppfatning av dem er basert på vår kunnskap om oss selv. De som kjører fortere enn oss er gærninger og de som kjører saktere er sinker. Spådommer om andres oppførsel forteller ofte mer om spåmannen og beskyldninger forteller ofte mye om anklageren.

Fanbaiting:

Ideas that divide spread further than ideas everyone agrees with. Film studios portray a white character or historical figure as black, which stokes outrage and divides the internet, and as everyone complains or defends it they all unwittingly publicize the movie.

Fiction Lag (aka Experience-Taking):

When people are captivated by a work of fiction, they unconsciously adopt the traits of their favorite characters. We develop our identities by copying others, and perhaps one reason we enjoy fiction is that it gives us ideas on who to be.

Finality Principle:

One day you’ll do something for the last time and never know it. So, whether you’re watching a sunset or arguing with a friend, ask yourself: “What if this was the last time I experience this?” A sense of finality can turn even nuisances into treasures

Fredkin’s Paradox:

The more similar two choices seem, the less the decision should matter, yet the harder it is to choose between them. As a result, we often spend the most time on the decisions that matter least. Use less time making decisions, it leaves you more time to make decisions work.

Gall’s Law

A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that worked. Systems that are med complex from the start rarely works. From John Gall’s book Systemantics: How Systems Really Work and How They Fail.

Galloway’s Razor

Research shows people enjoy possessions less than they expected, and they enjoy experiences more than they expected. In the end, people value what they did much more than what they owned. So, if you want to buy happiness, choose adventures over luxury goods.

Gambler’s Conceit:

People hooked on a risky behavior (gambling, smoking) believe they’ll be able to quit while ahead (before bankruptcy, lung cancer). However, their future-self acts much like them, so if they can’t quit now, they likely won’t quit later when it’s even harder.

Gamblers Fallacy

«Nå har jeg hatt uflaks så lenge, at jeg er bare nødt til å ha flaks i neste runde«. Men lykken skylder ingen noe, og statistisk er sannsynligheten 50/50 for kron i neste kast, selv om du allerede har kastet kron ti ganger på rad.

Generation Effect:

If you really want to understand a topic, don’t read about it, write about it. The act of explaining something helps connect the dots and commit them to memory far better than the passive act of reading. (Det er derfor jeg har samlet disse begrepene)

«Gjør NOE»-prinsippet

Ofte sliter vi med prokrastinering overfor store å vanskelige oppgaver. Forsøk å dele dem opp i mindre biter og fokuser på å gjøre en bit. Greier du det, kan du eventuelt ta en bit til neste gang, og til slutt er kanskje hele jobben gjort. Spis elefanten en bit av gangen.

Golden Mean:

Good character is not about maximizing virtues but moderating them: to be sensitive without being fragile, confident without being cocky, steadfast without being stubborn, driven without being reckless, focused without being obsessed. This is Aristoteles.

Goodhart’s Law:

When a measure becomes a goal, it ceases to be a good measure. Since schools started to use test-scores as targets, they’ve gradually stopped teaching kids how to live fulfilling lives, and now mainly teach them how to pass school tests (See: Campbell’s Law).

Google Scholar effect

Alle henter sin kunnskap og inspirasjon fra de samme ti øverste treffene i Google-søket. Det fører til en intellektuell incest der alt har sitt opphav i den samme begrensede mengden av inspirasjon.

Granfalloon

Vi kategoriserer folk i meningsløse grupper: «de svarte», «fysikk-miljøene». Mange ganger kan de ha lite til felles, men vi behandler dem som om de tenkte med en hjerne, og noen påstår til og med at de snakker på vegne av dem.

Grey Rock metoden

Å ta igjen med troll gir dem bare det de er ute etter, din oppmerksomhet. Overse dem om du kan.

Gruen effekten

Butikker bygges som labyrinter for at du skal bli forvirret og begynne å impulshandle. Oppkalt etter den østerriske arkitekten Victor Gruen, som var en motstander av slike manipulerende virkemidler.

Gurwinder’s Theory of Bespoke Bullshit

Mange har ingen klar oppfatning om et emne før de blir spurt om det. Da kan de snekre sammen et standpunkt basert på innfall og halvglemt løsprat, og deretter bestemme seg for at denne to minutter gamle, hjemmelagde teorien vil være deres «new hill to die on».

Gurwinder’s Third Paradox:

In order for you to beat someone in a debate, your opponent needs to realize they’ve lost. Therefore, it’s easier to win an argument against a genius than an idiot.

Health Halo Effect:

We assume food products are healthy based on claims like “low fat” and “sugar free”, but foods stripped of fat/salt/sugar often require the addition of even unhealthier substances (emulsifiers, preservatives, artificial sweeteners).

Herostratic Fame:

Many people would rather be hated than unknown. In Ancient Greece, Herostratus burned down the Temple of Artemis purely so he’d be remembered. Now we have “nuisance influencers” who stream themselves committing crimes and harassing people purely for clout.

Hotelling’s Law:

Rival products (burgers, pop songs, political parties) tend to grow more alike over time, because creators copy more successful rivals to replicate their success and steal their customers/audiences. Paradoxically, this increases the value of being different.

Howard Hughs syndrome

Alle juger til de mektige, enten av frykt eller for å smiske. Folk som aldri hører annet en smiger, utvikler de mest forvrengte virkelighetsoppfatningene og deres store  innflytelse betyr at vanlige folk må betale prisen. Kunne også kalles Putin-effekten.

Inattentional Blindness

Det er interessant å konstatere at hjernen overser slike ting som en en ekstra «en» i denne setningen. Din oppmerksomhet og dine forventninger definerer virkeligheten din i like stor grad som synsinntrykkene.

Information-Action Ratio

The mark of useful info is that it makes us act differently. Most info we consume doesn’t make us act differently; we just passively graze on it like cattle before defecating it undigested. Stop mindless scrolling and seek out info that changes you.

Intellectual Obesity:

We evolved to seek out sugar as it was a scarce source of energy. But when we learned to mass-produce it, our love for sweet things went from an asset to a liability. The same is now true of data. Our curiosity, which once focused us, now distracts us.

Kayfabrication:

Politics is pro-wrestling in suits. Opposing parties are collaborators in a greater system, whose choreographed conflict entertains and distracts us from what is really going on.

Negative KISS Principle:

The design of everything is gradually being stripped down, because simple is easy & safe; the less there is, the less there is to offend or justify. But such rampant minimalism comes at a cost; our cultures are losing their uniqueness and identity.

Kurtose-risikoen

Vi bruker mer penger på å bekjempe terrorisme enn bistikk, selv om flere dør av bistikk, En bie kan bare drepe en og en terrorist kan detonere en kjernefysisk sprengladning. Historiske gjennomsnitt sier ikke noe om framtidig potensiale.

Liars dividend

Hvis du lærer folk om deepfaks og annen desinformasjon, blir de ikke mer kritiske til suspekt informasjon, men til all informasjon og tvilen gjør at de velger å tro på det de vil tro og behandler alt annet som desinformasjon.

Licensing Effect:

Believing you’re good can make you behave bad. Those who consider themselves virtuous worry less about their own behavior, making them more susceptible to ethical lapses. A big cause of immorality is self-righteous morality.

Lindy effekten

Jo lenger et ikke-biologisk fenomen har eksistert (kanskje et biologisk også), jo større er sjansen for at de vil overleve i lang tid. Alderen er rett og slett et bevis for fenomenets evne til å motstå tidens tann.

Longevity Escape Velocity:

Technology is gradually improving our lifespans, so if you try to live as long as possible, you may live to see technology that’ll allow you to live even longer. Time is the most valuable currency of all, and longevity yields compound interest

Longtermism:

a) Future people matter morally as much as people alive now.
b) There are likely many more future people than people alive now.
c) Small changes now can have huge repercussions in future.
If these are true, should we be doing more for future generations?

Majority Illusion:

Very online people often overestimate, based on their little internet bubble, the popularity of certain ideas. The Bud Light marketing team moved in online circles that thought Dylan Mulvaney was hip, so they assumed everyone else would too.

Maslows hammer

Folk baserer seg i for stor grad på ting de kan, for å forklare ting de ikke kan. For den som eier en hammer, vil alt se ut som spiker. Vokt deg for intellektuelle som nettopp har utgitt en ny bok. De vil forsøke å bruke bokens hovedteser på stort sett alt.

Mating Mind Hypothesis:

Why did we evolve a sense of humor? Comedy requires subverting expectations and connecting the seemingly unconnected. It’s a reliable signal of creativity, so we evolved to look for it in mates, and to use it to attract mates.

Media Naturalness Theory

Writing has existed for <2% of human history, so our brains are not evolved for reading; we need vocal/facial cues for context. Thus, accept that you’ll be misunderstood online, but never stop tweeting, for the only way to write clearer is by writing.

Meme teori

En god ideologi er som en parasitt. Det tar bolig i vertens hjerne og får verten til å spre seg videre. De ideologiene vi oftest utsettes for, er derfor ikke de sanneste, men de som det er lettest å tro på og som lettest kan videreføres.

Men Make a Tiger

Folk tror lettere, jo flere andre som påstår noe. Derfor skriver journalister «folk fordømmer Elons frisyre» framfor «Jeg hater Elons frisyre».

Mimetisk begjær

Begjær er smittsomt. Å se andre mennesker ønske seg noe, kan også få oss til å ønske oss det samme. Det er dette som får reklame til å virke. Men det skaper en kunstig konkurranse om begrensede ressurser.

Minimal Self Hypothesis:

Narcissism is a “strategic retreat” into the safety of one’s own self. When the future looks random, inexplicable, and informationally overwhelming, people enter survival mode. The self becomes “minimal” to reduce its surface area to pain. People today are giving up on commitment of all sorts to conserve energy for vague and upcoming disasters

Moral Pollution:

We act like bad reputations are contagious, and mere proximity to something labelled immoral is itself immoral. Brands cut ties with people deemed unethical not because they value ethics, but because they fear contamination. Cancellation is moral quarantine.

Munger’s Iron Prescription

Hvis du ikke kan forsvare motpartens standpunkt minst like godt som de selv kan, har du ikke rett til å ha en egen mening. Denne regelen kunne forhindret mye dumhet..