Solar and wind energy are notably expected to play a major role in this decade, accounting for up to a third of emission reductions. Net zero by 2050 scenarios from the IEA, IRENA and BP all agree that installed solar and wind capacities must be close to
- 9000 GW in 2030 and to
- 22000 GW (35% efficiency) in 2050, while they are around
- 800 GW now, in 2022.
About 200 GW of new solar PV and onshore wind were commissioned in 2021, mainly helping to meet the ever-increasing total energy demand rather than actually replacing fossil fuels. Capacity additions will need to increase to 700 GW per year on average by 2030.
Så selv et net zero scenarie for 2050 innebærer 77% mer fossil energi enn sol & vind. Interessant å vite hva «Stop oil now» ser for seg å putte inn der. 2050 tallene omregnet fra exaJ til TWh (gang med 278):
- Hydro 13 344 TWh
- Nuclear 7 506 TWh
- Sun & wind (& geothermal) 68 666 TWh (~40%)
- Gas 50 318 TWh
- Oil 42 812 TWh
- Coal 28 634 TWh